Declared fictional inputs
Fictional prices · raw · 36 closes
2026-01-05 to 2026-02-23 · Private source labels withheld
Events: Complete event coverage declared by the owner; source labels withheld
Explore a sample report made with fictional prices and $10,000 in hypothetical cash.
FICTIONAL EXAMPLE
XDEMO · Following the trend
A simple trend strategy, compared with buying and holding.
Investment settings
$10,000 to start · 3 earlier prices in the moving average · XDEMO benchmark.
0.10% trading fee · 0.05% Slippage per trade.
Calculation checks passedSample data through 2026-02-23Fictional example
Confidence certificate
The strategy ended at $9,980.77 from $10,000.00, a -0.19% return after modeled costs. It finished $164.01 below the selected benchmark over these 33 price dates.
Details & checks
Strategy experiment · Full period · Fictional inputs
These checks confirm internal consistency; an independent calculation has not been attached. Historical results do not predict future returns.
Coverage33 observations2026-01-08 to 2026-02-23
Internal consistencyListed checks passed5 passed · 0 failed
Independent replayNo receipt attachedSeparate from project test results
Checks on this result
- Matched observation datesPassed
All three paths use the same supplied evaluation dates; boundaries and counts match.
- Exact wealth reconciliationPassed
Every observed value equals cash + receivables + shares marked at the supplied close, with exact cent rounding.
- Trade fee totalsPassed
Each path’s reported fees equal the sum of its execution fees.
- Prior-close signal timingPassed
Each recorded strategy signal precedes its execution at the next supplied close. This checks timing, not whether every signal is correct.
- Ending-return arithmeticPassed
Returns match ending wealth and starting cash within 1e-10 percentage points.
- Independent Python replayNot run
No independent replay receipt is attached to this report. Project test results do not certify an individual report.
Input sources
Declared fictional inputs
Fictional prices · raw · 36 closes
2026-01-05 to 2026-02-23 · Private source labels withheld
Events: Complete event coverage declared by the owner; source labels withheld
Assumptions
- 3-observation moving average; long or cash; previous-close signals execute at the next supplied close.
- 0.10% fee and 0.05% adverse slippage per trade.
- No borrowing, shorting, cash interest, taxes, forced final sale or dividend reinvestment. Dividends remain nonspendable receivables.
- Earlier and later periods each restart with initial cash. Repeated trials can overfit the later period.
What remains uncertain
- These checks establish internal consistency only. They do not authenticate prices or events, establish trading skill, or predict future returns.
- Exchange-session completeness is not assessed. A gap may be a weekend, holiday or missing observation; no prices are filled in.
- Source labels and fingerprints are references, not signatures or independent authentication. These checks do not replay the trading strategy.
- Risk describes supplied observation intervals without annualization, liquidity, market-impact or survivorship corrections.
- This summary omits raw price inputs and private source labels. Its consistency checks were calculated against the frozen private inputs; this redacted summary cannot independently replay the full experiment.
Longest gap: 3 calendar days. Exchange-session completeness is not assessed.
Method: observed-close-sma-v1
Report reference: Shared summary · private input identifiers withheld
marketlab-confidence-v1
How the investment would have changed
2026-01-08 → 2026-02-23 · 33 price dates
Trend strategyBuy and holdBenchmark
Each period starts with $10,000 in hypothetical cash. Compare the strategy with simply buying and holding.
Results after modeled costs
| Path | Ending value | Return | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend strategy | $9,980.77 | -0.19% | -0.19% |
| Buy and hold | $10,144.78 | 1.45% | -0.20% |
| Benchmark | $10,144.78 | 1.45% | -0.20% |
Inspect exact observations (33)
| Date | Strategy wealth | Buy & hold | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | $9,985.02 | $9,985.02 | $9,985.02 |
| 2026-01-09 | $9,999.95 | $10,014.97 | $10,014.97 |
| 2026-01-12 | $9,984.97 | $9,995.00 | $9,995.00 |
| 2026-01-13 | $9,999.88 | $10,024.96 | $10,024.96 |
| 2026-01-14 | $9,984.90 | $10,004.99 | $10,004.99 |
| 2026-01-15 | $9,999.78 | $10,034.94 | $10,034.94 |
| 2026-01-16 | $9,984.80 | $10,014.97 | $10,014.97 |
| 2026-01-19 | $9,999.65 | $10,044.93 | $10,044.93 |
| 2026-01-20 | $9,984.67 | $10,024.96 | $10,024.96 |
| 2026-01-21 | $9,999.49 | $10,054.91 | $10,054.91 |
| 2026-01-22 | $9,984.51 | $10,034.94 | $10,034.94 |
| 2026-01-23 | $9,999.30 | $10,064.90 | $10,064.90 |
| 2026-01-26 | $9,984.32 | $10,044.93 | $10,044.93 |
| 2026-01-27 | $9,999.08 | $10,074.88 | $10,074.88 |
| 2026-01-28 | $9,984.10 | $10,054.91 | $10,054.91 |
| 2026-01-29 | $9,998.83 | $10,084.87 | $10,084.87 |
| 2026-01-30 | $9,983.85 | $10,064.90 | $10,064.90 |
| 2026-02-02 | $9,998.55 | $10,094.85 | $10,094.85 |
| 2026-02-03 | $9,983.57 | $10,074.88 | $10,074.88 |
| 2026-02-04 | $9,998.24 | $10,104.84 | $10,104.84 |
| 2026-02-05 | $9,983.26 | $10,084.87 | $10,084.87 |
| 2026-02-06 | $9,997.90 | $10,114.82 | $10,114.82 |
| 2026-02-09 | $9,982.92 | $10,094.85 | $10,094.85 |
| 2026-02-10 | $9,997.53 | $10,124.81 | $10,124.81 |
| 2026-02-11 | $9,982.55 | $10,104.84 | $10,104.84 |
| 2026-02-12 | $9,997.13 | $10,134.79 | $10,134.79 |
| 2026-02-13 | $9,982.15 | $10,114.82 | $10,114.82 |
| 2026-02-16 | $9,996.70 | $10,144.78 | $10,144.78 |
| 2026-02-17 | $9,981.72 | $10,124.81 | $10,124.81 |
| 2026-02-18 | $9,996.24 | $10,154.76 | $10,154.76 |
| 2026-02-19 | $9,981.26 | $10,134.79 | $10,134.79 |
| 2026-02-20 | $9,995.75 | $10,164.75 | $10,164.75 |
| 2026-02-23 | $9,980.77 | $10,144.78 | $10,144.78 |